Wednesday, February 9, 2011

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices | Business | The Guardian

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices | Business | The Guardian

Not quite science, but perhaps the basis for modern science. Jared Diamond in his book "Guns Germs, and Steel" talks about the main reason for technological advancement is the % of excess food production in a society. In an agrarian society, 90% of the individuals spend 90% of their time growing, processing or hunting for food. The remaining 10% typically protect (spiritually and physically) the 90%.

This leaves little time for other pursuits such as art, science, technology, etc.

The modern society is based on the premise that our basic needs; Food, Housing, Transportation, can all be met by a fraction of the population. Today only a small percentage of our population is involved in agriculture. And even though a decreasing number of Americans work in the manufacturing sector, the amount of goods produced by manufacturing is still high as a percentage of the economy.

A substantial reason for this is the cheap nature of energy and oil-based products. Modern society would never have developed at the rate it did without the advent of oil. Oil-powered steamers replaced sailing ships. Trucks replaced horses. Petrochemical-based fertilizers and tractors replaced dung and oxen. Man now had the ability to wage war, feed its population, and build "stuff" at an astounding rate.

This freed society to spend lifetimes worrying about seemingly narrow or meaningless pursuits. A scientist could spend his days toiling to understand the nature of seawater, or bacteria, or the inner atom. And when the 1 in 1000 line of thought produced a true innovation, society continued its relentless advancements.

Isaac Asimov in the foundation series introduced an interesting idea with the creation of the Foundation on Terminus. He argued that a wealth of resources had stunted the scientific growth of the Empire, and that by founding the foundation on Terminus, a remote planet that lacked significant amounts of resources, he would force the scientific minds to innovate a more advanced set of technologies.

In many ways modern society is like the Empire. A wealth of resources provided the basis for modern scientific thought. Are we stunting? Has the pursuit of celebrity replaced the pursuit of knowledge and scientific advancement?

What happens when those resources dry up? Do we descend into anarchy, revert to an agrarian society? Or do we innovate our way out of the problem.

Mike

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